Join in for over 20 hours of wizarding wonder at POTTERFEST a Harry Potter marathon, screening at Palace Cinemas. Kandahar k n d h r or Qandahar Pashto Kandahr Dari Qandahr, known in older literature as Candahar. Based on your feedback we are improving the member login section of this website. We cant wait to show you the new and improved member area, coming soon. Alexander Nix, the CEO of Cambridge Analytica, which did data analysis and message targeting for the Trump campaign, New York City, September 2016. Top 10 filmova u 2016. Ove filmove u 2017. SF filmova Totalni pobjednik Zlatnih globusa La La. Sheet3 Sheet2 Sheet1 GoBack Assets received on or after are not controlled assets for the purposes of the Charter of the United Nations Sanctions. Invisible Manipulators of Your Mind by Tamsin Shawby Michael Lewis. Norton, 3. 62 pp., 2. We are living in an age in which the behavioral sciences have become inescapable. VsABXPKSLlqS8jpaHw7HN8ojZ.jpg' alt='Watch Kajaki Online Free 2016 Gregorian' title='Watch Kajaki Online Free 2016 Gregorian' />The findings of social psychology and behavioral economics are being employed to determine the news we read, the products we buy, the cultural and intellectual spheres we inhabit, and the human networks, online and in real life, of which we are a part. Aspects of human societies that were formerly guided by habit and tradition, or spontaneity and whim, are now increasingly the intended or unintended consequences of decisions made on the basis of scientific theories of the human mind and human well being. Barbara Tversky. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Stanford, California, 1. The behavioral techniques that are being employed by governments and private corporations do not appeal to our reason they do not seek to persuade us consciously with information and argument. Rather, these techniques change behavior by appealing to our nonrational motivations, our emotional triggers and unconscious biases. If psychologists could possess a systematic understanding of these nonrational motivations they would have the power to influence the smallest aspects of our lives and the largest aspects of our societies. Michael Lewiss The Undoing Project seems destined to be the most popular celebration of this ongoing endeavor to understand and correct human behavior. It recounts the complex friendship and remarkable intellectual partnership of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, the psychologists whose work has provided the foundation for the new behavioral science. It was their findings that first suggested we might understand human irrationality in a systematic way. When our thinking errs, they claimed, it does so predictably. Kahneman tells us that thanks to the various counterintuitive findingsdrawn from surveysthat he and Tversky made together, we now understand the marvels as well as the flaws of intuitive thought. Kahneman presented their new model of the mind to the general reader in Thinking, Fast and Slow 2. Watch Sugar Mountain Online Iflix. System One, which is fast and automatic, including instincts, emotions, innate skills shared with animals, as well as learned associations and skills and System Two, which is slow and deliberative and allows us to correct for the errors made by System One. Lewiss tale of this intellectual revolution begins in 1. Kahneman devising personality tests for the Israeli army and discovering that optimal accuracy could be attained by devising tests that removed, as far as possible, the gut feelings of the tester. Watch Rude Boy Online Hulu here. The testers were employing System One intuitions that skewed their judgment and could be avoided if tests were devised and implemented in ways that disallowed any role for individual judgment and bias. This is an especially captivating episode for Lewis, since his best selling book, Moneyball 2. Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team, who used new forms of data analytics to override the intuitive judgments of baseball scouts in picking players. The Undoing Project also applauds the story of the psychologist Lewis Goldberg, a colleague of Kahneman and Tversky in their days in Eugene, Oregon, who discovered that a simple algorithm could more accurately diagnose cancer than highly trained experts who were biased by their emotions and faulty intuitions. Algorithmsfixed rules for processing dataunlike the often difficult, emotional human protagonists of the book, are its uncomplicated heroes, quietly correcting for the subtle but consequential flaws in human thought. The most influential of Kahneman and Tverskys discoveries, however, is prospect theory, since this has provided the most important basis of the biases and heuristics approach of the new behavioral sciences. They looked at the way in which people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and found that their behavior violated expected utility theorya fundamental assumption of economic theory that holds that decision makers reason instrumentally about how to maximize their gains. Kahneman and Tversky realized that they were not observing a random series of errors that occur when people attempted to do this. Rather, they identified a dozen systematic violations of the axioms of rationality in choices between gambles. These systematic errors make human irrationality predictable. Lewis describes, with sensitivity to the political turmoil that constantly assailed them in Israel, the realization by Kahneman and Tversky that emotions powerfully influence our intuitive analysis of probability and risk. We particularly aim, on this account, to avoid negative emotions such as regret and loss. Lewis tells us that after the Yom Kippur War, Israelis deeply regretted having to fight at a disadvantage as a result of being taken by surprise. But they did not regret Israels failure to take the action that both Kahneman and Tversky thought could have avoided war giving back the territorial gains from the 1. It seemed to Kahneman and Tversky that in this case as in others people regretted losses caused by their actions more than they regretted inaction that could have averted the loss. And if this were generally the case it would regularly inform peoples judgments about risk. That research eventually yielded heuristics, or rules of thumb, that have now become well known shorthand expressions for specific flaws in our intuitive thinking. Some of these seem to be linked by a shared emotional basis the endowment effect overvaluation of what we already have, status quo bias an emotional preference for maintaining the status quo, and loss aversion the tendency to attribute much more weight to potential losses than potential gains when assessing risk are all related to an innate conservatism about what we feel we have already invested in. Many of these heuristics are easy to recognize in ourselves. The availability heuristic describes our tendency to think that something is much more likely to occur if we happen to be, for contingent reasons, strongly aware of the phenomenon. After September 1. TV screens night and day. We find it hard to tune out information that should, strictly speaking, not be of high relevance to our judgment. But in spite of revealing these deep flaws in our thinking, Lewis supplies a consistently redemptive narrative, insisting that this new psychological knowledge permits us to compensate for human irrationality in ways that can improve human well being. The field of behavioral economics, a subject pioneered by Richard Thaler and rooted in the work of Kahneman and Tversky, has taken up the task of figuring out how to turn us into better versions of ourselves. If the availability heuristic encourages people to ensure against very unlikely occurrences, nudges such as providing vivid reminders of more likely bad outcomes can be used to make their judgments of probability more realistic. If a bias toward the status quo means that people tend not to make changes that would benefit them, for instance by refusing to choose between retirement plans, we can make the more beneficial option available by automatically enrolling people in a plan with the option to withdraw if they choose. This is exactly what Cass Sunstein did when he oversaw the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama White House Obama subsequently created a Social and Behavioral Sciences Team.